The Atlanta Falcons take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium on Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+). This is the first of five overseas NFL games scheduled for this season. To prepare you for the game, which you can only watch on ESPN+, we've compiled the most complete matchup guide on the internet.
We begin with analytics writer Seth Walder identifying the most pressing questions for each team and NFL expert Matt Bowen deconstructing what he has seen thus far from both quarterbacks. Then, NFL Nation reporters Michael DiRocco and Michael Rothstein identify game X factors, NFL analyst Aaron Schatz assesses which team is superior at each position, and NFL draft expert Matt Miller names three rookies to watch.
Sign up for ESPN+ to watch the Falcons-Jaguars game live.
Where do you begin with your fantasy team? Eric Karabell, a fantasy writer, will tell you. Do you want to know where the Jaguars and Falcons are expected to choose in the 2024 draft and who they might get? Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst (and ESPN's Football Power Index), lays it out. Need some game-day sports betting advice? NFL commentator Mike Clay offers intriguing prop bets for the game. We also closely examine the two franchises' 2022 Calvin Ridley swap.
We have everything in one location and finish with expert score choices.
Can the Falcons make do with a bare-bones passing attack?
The Falcons aren't trying to hide their identity as a run-first team. This is evidenced by the team's selection of running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 draft and the team's extreme run-pass splits. When the Falcons' win probability is between 15 and 85% (when the game is still in doubt), they run planned pass plays 54% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, trailing only the Cardinals.
It's understandable, given the Falcons' ineffective passing attack. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has a Total QBR of 36, which ranks 29th, while the team's EPA per dropback is minus-0.06, which ranks 23rd. In other words, every time Ridder drops back to pass, Atlanta suffers. In the Falcons' Week 3 loss to the Lions, Ridder dropped back 46 times to pass for 3.0 yards per dropback and a 14 QBR.
To win with that passing game, you need an extremely efficient ground attack (along with a strong defence). Robinson already has 73 more rush yards than expected this season (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and is succeeding as a receiver with 14 grabs for 102 yards in three games.
Atlanta's run game has historically been strong. It finished third in EPA per intended run (0.05) last season. This season, though, it has yet to demonstrate this. In 2023, Atlanta's EPA per designed rush is 0.01 – better than its passing game but only 11th in the league. If the Falcons are to be successful, at least one – if not both – aspects of their offence must improve.
Can Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars get past the offensive line?
Lawrence has been better than his statistics imply during his NFL career since he hasn't had the best circumstances. Last season, he rated 17th in QBR while playing behind an offensive line that ranked 31st in pass block win rate and a mediocre receiving corps with the NFL's third-highest drop percentage (6%).
.jpg)
The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley in 2023, transforming a receiving problem into a strength, albeit the drop issue continues. So far this season, the Jaguars have a 7% drop rate.
The offensive line is still a concern in both portions of the offence. The team's pass block win rate is 26th, with rookie right tackle Anton Harrison having the third-worst PBWR (70%) at the position. Other starters, such as tackle Walker Little, guard Ben Bartch, and centre Luke Fortner, have also been below-average in their positions. While Lawrence's sack rate of 4.8% is modest, it is primarily because of his ability to escape sacks. Even when offensive line errors do not result in sacks, they significantly impact the throw game.
The offensive line problem extends to the ground assault, which is critical. Jacksonville is ranked 29th in run block victory rate, and their production matches that – the Jags are ranked 29th in EPA per planned run (minus-0.17).
When lineman Cam Robinson returns from his four-game ban for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy, he may be of assistance quickly. Conversely, Robinson finished in the bottom six in tackles in both win rate categories last season. Lawrence and Ridley must rise above the offensive line's inadequacies if the Jaguars want to become serious contenders.
The QB duel: Lawrence vs. Ridder
Bowen combed through the film on the two starting quarterbacks and identified three things he's noticed in 2023.
Falcons' Desmond Ridder
Ridder can deliver as a play-action thrower. Coach Arthur Smith's prescribed throws put Ridder in a position to target schemed voids in coverage, which keeps him on schedule. This season, Ridder averages 7.9 yards per attempt on play-action throws, compared to 6.0 yards per attempt on straight dropback passes.
He needs to let it go. On tape, I notice many quick-game throws with Ridder attacking beneath. However, he has only attempted 13 passes of 15 yards or more, which ranks 29th in the NFL. This Falcons offence could need more juice down the field despite having big-play targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London.
His mobility may cause problems for defences. Ridder possesses the mobility to attack the edges on boot concepts or off second-reaction scrambles, and the Falcons can employ him on planned carries in some situations. This season, he has 43 rushing yards on 13 carries, with 19 of those yards (and a touchdown) coming on intended carries.
Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence notices it quickly from his pocket. Lawrence is reading it quickly in Doug Pederson's quarterback-friendly system. He recognizes the coverage and distributes the ball in 2.47 seconds, which ranks second in the NFL behind Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
He needs his pass-catchers to complete more passes. The footage shows Lawrence throwing the ball accurately, but there are far too many focus drops. His drop rate per pass attempt is the % in the league at 7.1%. I'd like to see the Jaguars' receivers finish plays for their quarterback to help the offence get back on track.
His pocket movement is being scrutinized. Lawrence has been sacked six times this season and has suffered 29 quarterback hits in the first three outings. Despite this, he has demonstrated the ability to manoeuvre through mayhem in the pocket, maintaining his eye level and shifting to reset his throwing windows.
Who has the upper hand at each position?
Schatz compared the position groups of each team and determined which organization had the advantage.
Jaguars quarterbacks
Lawrence and Ridder have a shockingly tight QBR this year, owing to Lawrence's negative rushing value – but Lawrence has the greater track record and skill set.
Falcons running backs
Last season, Tyler Allgeier was worth more than Travis Etienne Jr., but the Falcons went out and selected Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick. That's a powerful 1-2 punch.
Jaguars wide receivers and tight ends
Ridley and London's advanced stats have been driven down by bad quarterback play. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have more depth in Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. In terms of tight end, we all know Pitts has a lot of potential, but when will the Falcons start throwing to him more frequently?
Falcons offensive line
Although it is close, the Falcons now rank 25th in pass block win rate (46.4%) and 21st in run block win rate (69.8%), while the Jaguars rank 26th (46.3%) and 29th (65.4%). In each category, the Falcons ranked higher in 2022.
Falcons' interior defensive line
This season, David Onyemata is eighth among defensive tackles in pass rush win rate (21.6%). Grady Jarrett has the 11th-best PRWR (17.3%) and the 10th-best run-stop victory rate (43.2%). The Jaguars are unexpectedly strong against the run-up front, ranking third in adjusted line yards allowed, but they lack an interior pass rush.
Jaguars' edge rushers
The Jaguars' pass rush has been disappointing, but the Falcons' edge rushers are no better. Josh Allen of Jacksonville is the best player on either team. And Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall choice in 2022 by Jacksonville, is stronger at establishing the edge against the run than rushing the quarterback.
Jaguars linebackers
Former Falcon Foyesade Oluokun is second in the league with eight defeats, indicating the importance of big plays. In 2022, he led the NFL in that metric. Devin Lloyd is expected to miss the game due to a hand injury, but the Jaguars have Chad Muma to fill in.
Falcons, secondary
Each squad has a distinct No. 1 corner. Tyson Campbell of the Jaguars broke out with superb coverage last season, while A.J. Terrell of the Falcons was fantastic in 2021 – and appears to be rebounding after a dismal 2022. The calibre of the safeties is most likely the difference here, and the Falcons signed Jessie Bates III in the summer.
Falcons special teams
By special teams DVOA, both units were solid last season, but Atlanta was better. And, while both units have been below average this year, Atlanta has performed better.
Posts
0 Comment(s):
Post a Comment